LA Clippers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints29
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints41
- Damian LillardAssists4
- Bobby PortisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–113
- Q41.0Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)106–113
- Q411.0Brook Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2103–113
- Q411.0Bucks offensive team rebound103–112
- Q411.0Brook Lopez misses free throw 1 of 2103–112
- Q411.0Kawhi Leonard personal foul103–112
- Q419.2Paul George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)103–112
- Q431.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2100–112
- Q431.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2100–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:33Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 96 – 90 MIL · LAC 69% → 83% +14LAC 69% → 83%+14 pts
- Q45:16Damian Lillard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAC 96 – 93 MIL · MIL 16% → 30% +14MIL 16% → 30%+14 pts
- Q44:33Patrick Beverley makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)LAC 96 – 96 MIL · MIL 29% → 48% +19MIL 29% → 48%+19 pts
- Q44:10Damian Lillard makes two point shot (Bobby Portis assists)LAC 96 – 98 MIL · MIL 48% → 62% +14MIL 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q43:34AJ Green makes 32-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)LAC 96 – 101 MIL · MIL 63% → 82% +19MIL 63% → 82%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 54%
- Fair odds
- LAC -125
- MIL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 117.2 – 115.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +24 | −82 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +29 Elo | LAC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 121.52nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 117.118th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.8 | Margin | +4.47th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 117.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 24–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.