Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints24
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–98
- Q48.0shot clock turnover119–98
- Q431.1Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound119–98
- Q434.1Cameron Payne misses 26-foot three point jumper119–98
- Q444.1Andre Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot dunk119–98
- Q446.1Buddy Hield bad pass (Andre Jackson Jr. steals)117–98
- Q447.1Buddy Hield offensive rebound117–98
- Q450.1Cameron Payne misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot117–98
- Q41:03AJ Green makes 23-foot step back jumpshot117–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:56Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointerMIL 13 – 14 PHI · PHI 45% → 52% +7PHI 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q16:44Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 16 – 14 PHI · MIL 48% → 55% +7MIL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q16:26Paul Reed makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)MIL 16 – 17 PHI · PHI 45% → 52% +7PHI 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q28:11Patrick Beverley makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 43 – 35 PHI · MIL 63% → 70% +7MIL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q25:21Bobby Portis makes 28-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 51 – 40 PHI · MIL 71% → 77% +6MIL 71% → 77%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- MIL 56%
- Fair odds
- MIL -103
- PHI +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 118.1 – 117.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −36 | MIL: Usual rotation · PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30121.8 | Points scored | 117.711th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 113.614th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.2 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 116.46th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 112.411th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.0 | Pace | 100.615th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 18–1217th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 1–0 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.