Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists12
- Brook LopezRebounds11
Grizzlies- Ziaire WilliamsPoints27
- Vince Williams Jr.Assists7
- Vince Williams Jr.Rebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–113
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound110–113
- Q40.0Damian Lillard misses 35-foot three point shot110–113
- Q411.0Lamar Stevens enters the game for Jacob Gilyard110–113
- Q411.0Vince Williams Jr. turnover110–113
- Q411.0Vince Williams Jr. offensive charge110–113
- Q429.0Brook Lopez kicked ball violation110–113
- Q429.0Jacob Gilyard enters the game for Lamar Stevens110–113
- Q429.0Grizzlies Full timeout110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:50GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MIL 100 – 101 MEM · MEM 32% → 54% +21MEM 32% → 54%+21 pts
- Q43:29Jae Crowder makes 20-foot jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 102 – 101 MEM · MIL 46% → 61% +15MIL 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q42:44GG Jackson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MIL 102 – 104 MEM · MEM 38% → 64% +26MEM 38% → 64%+26 pts
- Q42:15Ziaire Williams makes alley oop dunk shot (Santi Aldama assists)MIL 102 – 106 MEM · MEM 66% → 81% +15MEM 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:39Lamar Stevens makes layup (Vince Williams Jr. assists)MIL 104 – 109 MEM · MEM 78% → 91% +13MEM 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 67%
- Fair odds
- MIL -171
- MEM +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.8 – 111.8 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −10 | −37 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −7, Luke Kennard −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +125 Elo | MIL 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.2 | Points scored | 107.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.9 | Points allowed | 113.112th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −6.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.7 | Offense rating | 106.030th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 112.010th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.515th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 16th of 3012–13 | Road vs home | 6–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−37 Elo- Derrick Rose right ankle soreness−7 Elo
- Luke Kennard left knee soreness−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.