Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints34
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Devin BookerAssists4
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q44.1Pat Connaughton makes two point shot106–114
- Q49.1Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 2 of 2104–114
- Q49.1Jordan Goodwin makes free throw 1 of 2104–113
- Q49.1Pat Connaughton personal take foul104–112
- Q411.1Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three pointer (Pat Connaughton assists)104–112
- Q415.0Josh Okogie enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic101–112
- Q415.0Yuta Watanabe enters the game for Kevin Durant101–112
- Q415.0Bol Bol enters the game for Grayson Allen101–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:24Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)MIL 45 – 38 PHX · MIL 52% → 61% +8MIL 52% → 61%+8 pts
- Q311:12Devin Booker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)MIL 51 – 53 PHX · PHX 55% → 64% +9PHX 55% → 64%+9 pts
- Q38:15Grayson Allen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MIL 53 – 59 PHX · PHX 67% → 75% +8PHX 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q32:48Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point shot (Jae Crowder assists)MIL 71 – 73 PHX · MIL 26% → 36% +10MIL 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q411:21Bradley Beal makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)MIL 73 – 82 PHX · PHX 78% → 87% +8PHX 78% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 63%
- Fair odds
- PHX -161
- MIL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 120.4 – 124.0 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +59 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +90 Elo | PHX 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.7 | Points scored | 117.312th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 114.615th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.7 | Margin | +2.711th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 116.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 113.816th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30103.6 | Pace | 99.919th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 14–1117th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.