Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints43
- Jusuf NurkicAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds13
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Tyus JonesAssists8
- Eugene OmoruyiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–112
- Q41.1Chimezie Metu defensive rebound140–112
- Q41.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses 23-foot three point jumper140–112
- Q47.0shot clock turnover140–112
- Q431.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes two point shot (Jules Bernard assists)140–112
- Q435.0Jules Bernard defensive rebound140–110
- Q438.0Nassir Little misses 22-foot three point jumper140–110
- Q452.1Eugene Omoruyi makes layup (Patrick Baldwin Jr. assists)140–110
- Q454.1Keita Bates-Diop lost ball turnover (Eugene Omoruyi steals)140–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:29Kevin Durant makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Devin Booker assists)PHX 9 – 2 WSH · PHX 75% → 80% +5PHX 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q19:48Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 11 – 5 WSH · WSH 17% → 21% +4WSH 17% → 21%+4 pts
- Q18:44Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 19 – 7 WSH · PHX 83% → 87% +4PHX 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q210:31Deni Avdija makes 27-foot three pointerPHX 45 – 37 WSH · WSH 14% → 18% +4WSH 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q28:02Landry Shamet makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 55 – 44 WSH · WSH 10% → 14% +4WSH 10% → 14%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7
- PHX 75%
- Fair odds
- PHX -218
- WSH +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 121.1 – 115.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | −24 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +191 Elo | PHX 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 68.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 114.817th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 123.730th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −9.028th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 109.725th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 118.327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 104.52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 5th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 3–2030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.