Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints33
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints25
- Lonnie Walker IVAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–120
- Q43.1shot clock turnover136–120
- Q427.1Lonnie Walker IV makes 2-foot two point shot136–120
- Q437.1Jordan Goodwin makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot136–118
- Q459.0Drew Eubanks defensive rebound134–118
- Q41:02Lonnie Walker IV misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot134–118
- Q41:20Chimezie Metu enters the game for Kevin Durant134–118
- Q41:20Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Eric Gordon134–118
- Q41:20Nassir Little enters the game for Jusuf Nurkic134–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:16Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)PHX 69 – 70 BKN · BKN 40% → 49% +9BKN 40% → 49%+9 pts
- Q38:12Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)PHX 73 – 73 BKN · BKN 37% → 46% +9BKN 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q37:17Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 78 – 75 BKN · PHX 54% → 64% +10PHX 54% → 64%+10 pts
- Q36:05Spencer Dinwiddie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)PHX 82 – 78 BKN · BKN 24% → 33% +9BKN 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q35:10Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 87 – 80 BKN · PHX 67% → 76% +9PHX 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 56%
- Fair odds
- PHX -129
- BKN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.6 – 113.6 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +59 | +18 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +44 Elo | PHX 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 114.020th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 114.916th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −0.818th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.8 | Offense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 114.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 12–1221st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+18 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe hyperextended left knee−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.