Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints19
- Fred VanVleetAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints37
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–106
- Q40.1Nets offensive team rebound104–106
- Q40.1Spencer Dinwiddie misses free throw 2 of 2104–106
- Q40.1Jalen Green enters the game for Amen Thompson104–106
- Q40.1Fred VanVleet enters the game for Jae'Sean Tate104–106
- Q40.1Spencer Dinwiddie makes free throw 1 of 2104–106
- Q40.1Amen Thompson personal take foul104–105
- Q42.1Alperen Sengun makes free throw 2 of 2104–105
- Q42.1Amen Thompson enters the game for Fred VanVleet103–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:16Cam Whitmore makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 91 – 97 BKN · HOU 7% → 17% +9HOU 7% → 17%+9 pts
- Q44:11Jae'Sean Tate makes layup (Cam Whitmore assists)HOU 93 – 98 BKN · HOU 10% → 18% +8HOU 10% → 18%+8 pts
- Q43:07Cam Thomas makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)HOU 93 – 101 BKN · BKN 85% → 95% +10BKN 85% → 95%+10 pts
- Q47.0Amen Thompson makes 22-foot step back jumpshotHOU 102 – 103 BKN · HOU <1% → 14% +14HOU <1% → 14%+14 pts
- Q45.0Cam Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2HOU 102 – 104 BKN · BKN 89% → >99% +10BKN 89% → >99%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1
- BKN 54%
- Fair odds
- BKN -114
- HOU +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.1 – 114.1 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | −19 | HOU: Usual rotation · BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +25 Elo | BKN 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30113.5 | Points scored | 113.520th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 115.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −1.721st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.917th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.3 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–15 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−19 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe hyperextended left knee−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.