Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints27
- Kyle AndersonAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds13
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints25
- Nic ClaxtonAssists4
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–94
- Q42.1Mike Conley enters the game for Rudy Gobert96–94
- Q42.1Dennis Smith Jr. enters the game for Cam Thomas96–94
- Q42.1Spencer Dinwiddie enters the game for Royce O'Neale96–94
- Q42.1Timberwolves Full timeout96–94
- Q42.1Timberwolves defensive team rebound96–94
- Q42.1Mikal Bridges misses free throw 2 of 296–94
- Q42.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mike Conley96–94
- Q42.1Nic Claxton enters the game for Cameron Johnson96–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:34Mikal Bridges makes 8-foot two point shotMIN 91 – 89 BKN · BKN 20% → 32% +12BKN 20% → 32%+12 pts
- Q42:05Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layupMIN 94 – 90 BKN · MIN 71% → 85% +14MIN 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q41:44Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot two point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)MIN 94 – 92 BKN · BKN 13% → 27% +15BKN 13% → 27%+15 pts
- Q41:11Cam Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2MIN 94 – 94 BKN · BKN 35% → 48% +13BKN 35% → 48%+13 pts
- Q458.0Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 96 – 94 BKN · MIN 52% → 78% +26MIN 52% → 78%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -4
- MIN 65%
- Fair odds
- MIN -154
- BKN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 112.3 – 109.0 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +46 | −17 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +110 Elo | MIN 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.5 | Points scored | 113.920th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.7 | Margin | −1.721st of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 115.119th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 10–1122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.