Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints38
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints24
- Kyle KuzmaAssists8
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–107
- Q411.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Anthony Gill assists)118–107
- Q419.2Patrick Baldwin Jr. defensive rebound118–104
- Q422.1Anthony Edwards misses running pullup jump shot118–104
- Q425.2Trey Jemison bad pass (Wendell Moore Jr. steals)118–104
- Q439.0Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 1118–104
- Q439.0Wendell Moore Jr. enters the game for Karl-Anthony Towns117–104
- Q439.0Luka Garza enters the game for Rudy Gobert117–104
- Q439.0Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Marvin Bagley III117–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q237.0Kyle Kuzma makes 24-foot three point jumper (Landry Shamet assists)MIN 54 – 56 WSH · WSH 34% → 42% +8WSH 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q212.1Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)MIN 57 – 59 WSH · WSH 34% → 42% +8WSH 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q310:03Deni Avdija makes 22-foot step back jumpshot (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIN 59 – 64 WSH · WSH 43% → 52% +9WSH 43% → 52%+9 pts
- Q38:38Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 65 – 64 WSH · MIN 56% → 65% +9MIN 56% → 65%+9 pts
- Q33:31Naz Reid makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 80 – 73 WSH · MIN 74% → 82% +8MIN 74% → 82%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.1% of 390 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7
- MIN 76%
- Fair odds
- MIN -215
- WSH +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 117.1 – 111.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1382 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −19 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +200 Elo | MIN 76.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 67.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30113.4 | Points scored | 115.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.8 | Points allowed | 124.930th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −9.528th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 110.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.5 | Defense rating | 119.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.8 | Pace | 104.81st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 6th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 3–1628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.