Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints28
- LaMelo BallAssists13
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds7
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints62
- Anthony EdwardsAssists11
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–125
- Q41.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound128–125
- Q41.0Karl-Anthony Towns misses 29-foot three point jumper128–125
- Q41.1Kyle Anderson enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker128–125
- Q41.1Timberwolves Full timeout128–125
- Q41.1Leaky Black makes free throw 2 of 2128–125
- Q41.1Leaky Black makes free throw 1 of 2127–125
- Q41.1Jaden McDaniels personal take foul126–125
- Q42.2Leaky Black defensive rebound126–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:38Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)CHA 115 – 119 MIN · MIN 67% → 83% +16MIN 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q43:55Nick Smith Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Leaky Black assists)CHA 120 – 119 MIN · CHA 27% → 47% +20CHA 27% → 47%+20 pts
- Q43:21P.J. Washington makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot (Miles Bridges assists)CHA 122 – 121 MIN · CHA 34% → 49% +15CHA 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q42:42Terry Rozier makes 5-foot two point shotCHA 124 – 121 MIN · CHA 51% → 68% +17CHA 51% → 68%+17 pts
- Q438.1Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2CHA 126 – 125 MIN · MIN 21% → 36% +15MIN 21% → 36%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -13
- MIN 89%
- Fair odds
- MIN -413
- CHA +413 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 103.6 – 114.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1340 | 1593 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +35 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +364 Elo | MIN 89.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 80.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 113.121st of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 107.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.5 | Margin | +5.84th of 30 |
| 28th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 112.819th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 99.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–17 | Road vs home | 17–32nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.