Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Josh GiddeyRebounds8
Timberwolves- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints19
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–97
- Q41.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 2 of 2102–97
- Q41.1Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2101–97
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards personal take foul100–97
- Q43.1Jaylin Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe100–97
- Q43.1Isaiah Joe enters the game for Jaylin Williams100–97
- Q43.1Josh Giddey enters the game for Luguentz Dort100–97
- Q43.1Kyle Anderson enters the game for Rudy Gobert100–97
- Q43.1Thunder Full timeout100–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:18Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point shot (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 92 – 92 MIN · OKC 31% → 49% +18OKC 31% → 49%+18 pts
- Q42:03Anthony Edwards makes driving layupOKC 92 – 94 MIN · MIN 51% → 70% +19MIN 51% → 70%+19 pts
- Q41:14Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot step back jumpshotOKC 96 – 94 MIN · OKC 36% → 73% +37OKC 36% → 73%+37 pts
- Q415.0Jalen Williams makes free throw 1 of 2OKC 97 – 95 MIN · OKC 76% → 92% +16OKC 76% → 92%+16 pts
- Q48.1Naz Reid makes driving layupOKC 98 – 97 MIN · MIN <1% → 17% +16MIN <1% → 17%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1.5
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -127
- OKC +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.9 – 115.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +90 | +58 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +36 Elo | MIN 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30122.2 | Points scored | 113.521st of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 107.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.1 | Margin | +6.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 113.118th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 17–22nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–1 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.