New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Julius RandlePoints30
- Julius RandleAssists7
- Julius RandleRebounds9
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints36
- Dorian Finney-SmithAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–103
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound108–103
- Q40.0Mikal Bridges misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot108–103
- Q43.0Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2108–103
- Q43.0Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2107–103
- Q43.0Nic Claxton personal take foul106–103
- Q43.0Julius Randle defensive rebound106–103
- Q46.1Cameron Johnson misses 25-foot three point jumper106–103
- Q410.1Nets Full timeout106–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:50Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)NY 94 – 95 BKN · NY 33% → 51% +17NY 33% → 51%+17 pts
- Q44:00Julius Randle makes tip shotNY 98 – 97 BKN · NY 48% → 62% +14NY 48% → 62%+14 pts
- Q43:47Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)NY 98 – 100 BKN · BKN 38% → 59% +22BKN 38% → 59%+22 pts
- Q42:19Julius Randle makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 101 – 100 BKN · NY 36% → 63% +28NY 36% → 63%+28 pts
- Q41:00Julius Randle makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 103 – 101 BKN · NY 53% → 79% +26NY 53% → 79%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 76%
- Fair odds
- NY -213
- BKN +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 115.3 – 109.5 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −17 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | BKN crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +196 Elo | NY 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 67.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.2 | Points scored | 114.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 115.817th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+4.6 | Margin | −1.622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.823rd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 10–1021st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−17 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe hyperextended left knee−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.