Brooklyn Nets at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints26
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists7
- Dorian Finney-SmithRebounds9
Clippers- James HardenPoints24
- James HardenAssists10
- Russell WestbrookRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–125
- Q414.1Norman Powell defensive rebound114–125
- Q424.1Cam Thomas misses driving layup114–125
- Q429.0Terance Mann enters the game for Paul George114–125
- Q429.0Amir Coffey enters the game for Kawhi Leonard114–125
- Q429.0Nets Full timeout114–125
- Q429.2Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)114–125
- Q444.1Russell Westbrook defensive rebound114–122
- Q444.1Cam Thomas misses driving layup114–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:17James Harden makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)BKN 75 – 67 LAC · LAC 31% → 40% +9LAC 31% → 40%+9 pts
- Q35:58Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)BKN 78 – 67 LAC · BKN 60% → 70% +9BKN 60% → 70%+9 pts
- Q43:44Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)BKN 114 – 113 LAC · LAC 29% → 50% +21LAC 29% → 50%+21 pts
- Q42:50Kawhi Leonard makes 9-foot two point shotBKN 114 – 115 LAC · LAC 48% → 65% +17LAC 48% → 65%+17 pts
- Q41:04Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot step back jumpshotBKN 114 – 120 LAC · LAC 88% → 99% +11LAC 88% → 99%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9
- LAC 81%
- Fair odds
- LAC -309
- BKN +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 110.7 – 119.2 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1601 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −14 | +70 | BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −10 · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +254 Elo | LAC 81.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 75.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 117.69th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 112.09th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +5.65th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 118.15th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 112.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.327th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 17–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−14 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe hyperextended left knee−10 Elo
Clippers
+70 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.