Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints33
- Mikal BridgesAssists5
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds14
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints26
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–112
- Q412.1shot clock turnover130–112
- Q434.1Royce O'Neale defensive rebound130–112
- Q437.2Jaxson Hayes misses 25-foot three point jumper130–112
- Q444.1Max Christie defensive rebound130–112
- Q448.1Harry Giles III misses 24-foot three point jumper130–112
- Q457.1Christian Wood makes free throw 2 of 2130–112
- Q457.1Harry Giles III enters the game for Nic Claxton130–111
- Q457.1Trendon Watford enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie130–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:09Mikal Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 76 – 74 LAL · BKN 33% → 42% +9BKN 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q35:56Spencer Dinwiddie makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 83 – 78 LAL · BKN 44% → 54% +10BKN 44% → 54%+10 pts
- Q32:38Cam Thomas makes 25-foot three pointer (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)BKN 96 – 84 LAL · BKN 71% → 80% +9BKN 71% → 80%+9 pts
- Q32:21Jarred Vanderbilt makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Davis assists)BKN 96 – 87 LAL · LAL 20% → 29% +9LAL 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q31:04Max Christie makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 98 – 90 LAL · LAL 21% → 30% +10LAL 21% → 30%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -6
- LAL 73%
- Fair odds
- LAL -240
- BKN +240 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 111.1 – 117.8 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −26 | +23 | BKN: Missing Day'Ron Sharpe −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +173 Elo | LAL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.618th of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 115.216th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.8 | Margin | −0.718th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.7 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–13 | Road vs home | 15–712th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−26 Elo- Day'Ron Sharpe hyperextended left knee−10 Elo
Lakers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.