Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints33
- Jerami GrantAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds17
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game137–131
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime137–131
- OT1.0Jabari Walker defensive rebound137–131
- OT2.1Fred VanVleet misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot137–131
- OT6.2Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 2137–131
- OT6.2Alperen Sengun enters the game for Amen Thompson136–131
- OT6.2Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 2136–131
- OT6.2Fred VanVleet personal take foul135–131
- OT7.2Amen Thompson enters the game for Alperen Sengun135–131
- OT7.2Trail Blazers Full timeout135–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:35Deandre Ayton makes 7-foot two point shot (Jerami Grant assists)POR 116 – 114 HOU · POR 45% → 62% +18POR 45% → 62%+18 pts
- Q42:15Alperen Sengun makes 2-foot two point shotPOR 116 – 116 HOU · HOU 36% → 55% +19HOU 36% → 55%+19 pts
- Q41:44Jalen Green makes two point shot (Aaron Holiday assists)POR 116 – 118 HOU · HOU 54% → 74% +20HOU 54% → 74%+20 pts
- Q40.0Jerami Grant makes 25-foot three point shot (Malcolm Brogdon assists)POR 124 – 124 HOU · POR 0% → 43% +43POR 0% → 43%+43 pts
- OT4:41Malcolm Brogdon makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jabari Walker assists)POR 127 – 124 HOU · POR 43% → 63% +20POR 43% → 63%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -7.5
- HOU 77%
- Fair odds
- HOU -252
- POR +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 107.7 – 114.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | POR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | −11 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +211 Elo | HOU 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.6 | Points scored | 112.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 112.110th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.4 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 111.023rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 110.66th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.5 | Pace | 100.418th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 16–711th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.