Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Malcolm BrogdonPoints23
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists9
- Malcolm BrogdonRebounds7
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints34
- D'Angelo RussellAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–134
- Q41.1shot clock turnover110–134
- Q425.1Rayan Rupert makes driving layup110–134
- Q432.1Jaxson Hayes makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Jalen Hood-Schifino assists)108–134
- Q446.1Rayan Rupert makes free throw 2 of 2108–132
- Q446.1Rayan Rupert makes free throw 1 of 2107–132
- Q446.1Jaxson Hayes shooting foul106–132
- Q453.1Colin Castleton makes free throw 2 of 2106–132
- Q453.1Colin Castleton makes free throw 1 of 2106–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)POR 0 – 3 LAL · LAL 73% → 78% +5LAL 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q14:05Duop Reath makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)POR 22 – 24 LAL · POR 20% → 25% +5POR 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q12:48Malcolm Brogdon makes 25-foot three point jumper (Duop Reath assists)POR 27 – 28 LAL · POR 22% → 27% +5POR 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q210:15Duop Reath makes 22-foot three point jumper (Matisse Thybulle assists)POR 36 – 42 LAL · POR 14% → 19% +5POR 14% → 19%+5 pts
- Q310:03D'Angelo Russell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rui Hachimura assists)POR 60 – 72 LAL · LAL 87% → 91% +4LAL 87% → 91%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 77%
- Fair odds
- LAL -272
- POR +272 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.3 – 116.9 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +29 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +212 Elo | LAL 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 73.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 114.518th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 115.616th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.2 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.8 | Offense rating | 111.222nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.4 | Pace | 102.57th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 15–812th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–2 LAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.