Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints19
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Jabari WalkerRebounds13
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints33
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–111
- Q41.1Malcolm Brogdon bad pass (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)109–111
- Q42.0Trail Blazers Full timeout109–111
- Q42.1Jalen Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shot109–111
- Q415.6Chauncey Billups ejected109–109
- Q415.6Thunder Full timeout109–109
- Q415.6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes technical free throw109–109
- Q415.6Thunder offensive team rebound109–108
- Q415.6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses technical free throw109–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:47Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 15-foot two point shotPOR 105 – 106 OKC · OKC 47% → 68% +21OKC 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q430.1Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 109 – 106 OKC · POR 46% → 92% +46POR 46% → 92%+46 pts
- Q425.1Jalen Williams makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)POR 109 – 108 OKC · OKC 6% → 32% +26OKC 6% → 32%+26 pts
- Q415.6Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes technical free throwPOR 109 – 109 OKC · OKC 26% → 53% +27OKC 26% → 53%+27 pts
- Q42.1Jalen Williams makes 18-foot pullup jump shotPOR 109 – 111 OKC · OKC 51% → >99% +49OKC 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -14
- OKC 90%
- Fair odds
- OKC -523
- POR +523 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.2 – 121.8 OKC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1589 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +87 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +392 Elo | OKC 90.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 83.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 83.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30107.5 | Points scored | 121.73rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 113.714th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.5 | Margin | +8.13rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.9 | Offense rating | 118.83rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 110.97th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.4 | Pace | 101.910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 26th of 305–18 | Road vs home | 16–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–2 OKC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.