Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints36
- Amen ThompsonAssists8
- Cam WhitmoreRebounds11
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints21
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game138–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter138–104
- Q411.1shot clock turnover138–104
- Q435.1Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2138–104
- Q435.1Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2138–103
- Q435.1Nate Hinton shooting foul138–102
- Q447.0Nate Hinton out of bounds bad pass turnover138–102
- Q457.0Jermaine Samuels Jr. defensive rebound138–102
- Q459.0James Bouknight misses 27-foot three point jumper138–102
- Q41:09Reggie Bullock Jr. makes 14-foot jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)138–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:38Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)HOU 28 – 28 CHA · CHA 38% → 44% +7CHA 38% → 44%+7 pts
- Q26:46Aaron Holiday makes 27-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 43 – 36 CHA · HOU 65% → 72% +7HOU 65% → 72%+7 pts
- Q26:26Nick Smith Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)HOU 43 – 39 CHA · CHA 28% → 35% +7CHA 28% → 35%+7 pts
- Q311:48Fred VanVleet makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 58 – 53 CHA · HOU 60% → 68% +8HOU 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q310:22LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three pointer (Brandon Miller assists)HOU 61 – 58 CHA · CHA 29% → 37% +8CHA 29% → 37%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 65%
- Fair odds
- HOU -129
- CHA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.3 – 112.4 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1347 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −46 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +110 Elo | HOU 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.9 | Points scored | 108.728th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 119.824th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −11.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.3 | Offense rating | 108.327th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 119.330th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.2 | Pace | 99.821st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 27th of 304–15 | Road vs home | 5–1426th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.