Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Pistons- Bojan BogdanovicPoints34
- Killian HayesAssists8
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–113
- Q40.1Pistons defensive team rebound106–113
- Q42.1Miles Bridges misses 30-foot three point shot106–113
- Q46.0Nick Richards defensive rebound106–113
- Q48.2Killian Hayes misses free throw 2 of 2106–113
- Q48.2Killian Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2106–113
- Q48.2Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for LaMelo Ball106–112
- Q48.2LaMelo Ball personal foul106–112
- Q411.1Killian Hayes defensive rebound106–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:40Nick Richards makes 1-foot dunkCHA 102 – 100 DET · CHA 49% → 64% +15CHA 49% → 64%+15 pts
- Q42:17Alec Burks makes 24-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)CHA 104 – 103 DET · DET 17% → 41% +24DET 17% → 41%+24 pts
- Q42:02Nick Richards makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 106 – 103 DET · CHA 59% → 77% +18CHA 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q41:46Bojan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three pointerCHA 106 – 106 DET · DET 21% → 51% +29DET 21% → 51%+29 pts
- Q41:12Jalen Duren makes tip shotCHA 106 – 108 DET · DET 50% → 75% +24DET 50% → 75%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1
- DET 54%
- Fair odds
- DET -112
- CHA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 116.6 – 117.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1317 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | −33 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +30 Elo | DET 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30108.8 | Points scored | 112.424th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 123.029th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.1 | Margin | −10.629th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 108.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 30119.4 | Defense rating | 119.229th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.9 | Pace | 102.76th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–17 | Road vs home | 2–2030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHA 0–1 DET in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.