Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints45
- Damian LillardAssists11
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Pistons- Alec BurksPoints33
- Alec BurksAssists6
- Ausar ThompsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–135
- Q48.0Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound141–135
- Q411.1Jaden Ivey misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot141–135
- Q416.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 2 of 2141–135
- Q416.0Damian Lillard makes free throw 1 of 2140–135
- Q416.0Alec Burks personal take foul139–135
- Q418.1Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Killian Hayes assists)139–135
- Q420.1Killian Hayes enters the game for Ausar Thompson139–132
- Q420.1Pistons Full timeout139–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:27Khris Middleton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 108 – 106 DET · MIL 57% → 70% +13MIL 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q49:54Ausar Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)MIL 108 – 109 DET · DET 30% → 43% +13DET 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q49:39Pat Connaughton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 111 – 109 DET · MIL 57% → 70% +13MIL 57% → 70%+13 pts
- Q48:50Alec Burks makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 113 – 114 DET · DET 30% → 44% +14DET 30% → 44%+14 pts
- Q44:30Bojan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alec Burks assists)MIL 126 – 124 DET · DET 15% → 30% +15DET 15% → 30%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -9.5
- MIL 82%
- Fair odds
- MIL -276
- DET +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 127.7 – 120.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1322 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −28 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +261 Elo | MIL 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.2 | Points scored | 111.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 122.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.9 | Margin | −10.729th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 108.626th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 119.028th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.6 | Pace | 102.57th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 2–1830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.