Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds17
Pistons- Marcus SasserPoints23
- Jaden IveyAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–113
- Q47.2Malik Beasley defensive rebound122–113
- Q410.0Giannis Antetokounmpo blocks Marcus Sasser 's 2-foot driving layup122–113
- Q419.0Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound122–113
- Q423.0Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot122–113
- Q441.1Malik Beasley defensive rebound122–113
- Q443.1Alec Burks misses 25-foot three point shot122–113
- Q457.0Brook Lopez traveling122–113
- Q41:16Marcus Sasser makes two point shot122–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:30Alec Burks makes 25-foot three pointer (Mike Muscala assists)MIL 102 – 103 DET · DET 29% → 44% +15DET 29% → 44%+15 pts
- Q46:46Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 107 – 105 DET · MIL 55% → 71% +16MIL 55% → 71%+16 pts
- Q44:59Brook Lopez makes 27-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 110 – 109 DET · MIL 46% → 65% +19MIL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- Q44:15Jaden Ivey makes 8-foot pullup jump shotMIL 112 – 111 DET · DET 23% → 35% +12DET 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q43:30Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 117 – 111 DET · MIL 78% → 91% +13MIL 78% → 91%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -10
- MIL 84%
- Fair odds
- MIL -318
- DET +318 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 129.3 – 120.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | −38 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +285 Elo | MIL 83.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 75.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30124.6 | Points scored | 112.424th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 123.028th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −10.629th of 30 |
| 1st of 30119.2 | Offense rating | 109.026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 119.330th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.7 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 2–1930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.