Utah Jazz at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints21
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds9
Nets- Mikal BridgesPoints33
- Ben SimmonsAssists11
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–147
- Q417.0shot clock turnover114–147
- Q441.0Luka Samanic makes free throw 2 of 2114–147
- Q441.0Luka Samanic makes free throw 1 of 2113–147
- Q441.0Trendon Watford shooting foul112–147
- Q451.1Dennis Smith Jr. makes two point shot (Harry Giles III assists)112–147
- Q41:00Harry Giles III defensive rebound112–145
- Q41:02Keyonte George misses free throw 2 of 2112–145
- Q41:02Keyonte George makes free throw 1 of 2112–145
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:38Mikal Bridges makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Ben Simmons assists)UTAH 20 – 27 BKN · BKN 47% → 54% +7BKN 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q13:07Lonnie Walker IV makes 23-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)UTAH 20 – 30 BKN · BKN 54% → 61% +7BKN 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:37Lonnie Walker IV makes 22-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)UTAH 38 – 50 BKN · BKN 61% → 68% +7BKN 61% → 68%+7 pts
- Q28:04Cameron Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)UTAH 40 – 53 BKN · BKN 64% → 71% +7BKN 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q31:10Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Smith Jr. assists)UTAH 83 – 97 BKN · BKN 82% → 89% +7BKN 82% → 89%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -4.5
- UTAH 67%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -172
- BKN +172 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 119.5 – 115.4 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +73 | −5 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +122 Elo | UTAH 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 113.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 114.916th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −1.622nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.2 | Offense rating | 112.919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 114.517th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 99.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 21st of 309–17 | Road vs home | 11–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–0 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.