Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints29
- Jordan ClarksonAssists8
- John CollinsRebounds16
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints26
- Tyus JonesAssists14
- Daniel GaffordRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–108
- Q44.1shot clock turnover123–108
- Q427.1John Collins defensive rebound123–108
- Q430.1Jules Bernard misses 24-foot three point jumper123–108
- Q439.1Trey Jemison defensive rebound123–108
- Q442.0Ochai Agbaji misses two point shot123–108
- Q450.0Trey Jemison enters the game for Kyle Kuzma123–108
- Q450.0Trey Jemison enters the game for123–108
- Q450.0Jules Bernard enters the game for Daniel Gafford123–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:51Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point shot (Tyus Jones assists)UTAH 4 – 13 WSH · WSH 40% → 46% +6WSH 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q18:07Simone Fontecchio makes 24-foot three point shot (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 7 – 13 WSH · UTAH 54% → 60% +6UTAH 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q16:53Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 15 – 15 WSH · UTAH 66% → 72% +6UTAH 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q221.1Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)UTAH 61 – 56 WSH · WSH 16% → 21% +6WSH 16% → 21%+6 pts
- Q22.1Collin Sexton makes 27-foot three pointerUTAH 64 – 56 WSH · UTAH 79% → 84% +6UTAH 79% → 84%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -8.5
- UTAH 79%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -266
- WSH +266 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 125.4 – 118.0 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +64 | −18 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +231 Elo | UTAH 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 115.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 124.730th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.1 | Margin | −9.528th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 109.925th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 119.029th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.1 | Pace | 104.81st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–17 | Road vs home | 3–1728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.