Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists7
- John CollinsRebounds9
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints33
- Zion WilliamsonAssists11
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–153
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–153
- Q41.0Jazz offensive team rebound124–153
- Q41.0Talen Horton-Tucker misses 16-foot pullup jump shot124–153
- Q45.0Jose Alvarado lost ball turnover (Talen Horton-Tucker steals)124–153
- Q419.1Jose Alvarado defensive rebound124–153
- Q423.0Luka Samanic misses 24-foot three point jumper124–153
- Q429.1Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound124–153
- Q433.0Jose Alvarado misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot124–153
- Q436.1Talen Horton-Tucker makes free throw 2 of 2124–153
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:12Simone Fontecchio makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 19 – 21 NO · UTAH 35% → 41% +6UTAH 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q14:59CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 19 – 24 NO · NO 59% → 65% +6NO 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q12.2Larry Nance Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)UTAH 30 – 34 NO · NO 57% → 64% +7NO 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q211:37Jordan Hawkins makes 27-foot three point shot (Zion Williamson assists)UTAH 30 – 37 NO · NO 64% → 70% +7NO 64% → 70%+7 pts
- Q210:58CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)UTAH 32 – 40 NO · NO 66% → 72% +6NO 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -1.5
- NO 55%
- Fair odds
- NO -122
- UTAH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 117.4 – 118.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +78 | +75 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +37 Elo | NO 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 55.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 116.712th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 112.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.5 | Margin | +4.48th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 116.08th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.0 | Pace | 100.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–16 | Road vs home | 13–916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+78 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+75 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 2–1 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.