Utah Jazz at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints33
- Collin SextonAssists13
- Lauri MarkkanenRebounds12
Hornets- P.J. WashingtonPoints43
- Ish SmithAssists12
- Nick RichardsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–122
- Q43.0shot clock turnover134–122
- Q417.2John Collins offensive rebound134–122
- Q418.1John Collins misses free throw 2 of 2134–122
- Q418.1John Collins makes free throw 1 of 2134–122
- Q418.1Brandon Miller personal take foul133–122
- Q418.1John Collins defensive rebound133–122
- Q418.1P.J. Washington misses 8-foot two point shot133–122
- Q419.1P.J. Washington offensive rebound133–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:08Collin Sexton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 5 – 2 CHA · UTAH 81% → 85% +4UTAH 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q110:40John Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 8 – 2 CHA · UTAH 85% → 88% +3UTAH 85% → 88%+3 pts
- Q17:44Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cody Martin assists)UTAH 13 – 11 CHA · CHA 13% → 17% +4CHA 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q16:21Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)UTAH 20 – 13 CHA · UTAH 85% → 89% +3UTAH 85% → 89%+3 pts
- Q15:50Cody Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles Bridges assists)UTAH 22 – 16 CHA · CHA 9% → 12% +3CHA 9% → 12%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jazz 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -13
- UTAH 89%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -432
- CHA +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 123.3 – 112.2 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1332 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +63 | −93 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Frank Ntilikina −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +368 Elo | UTAH 89.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 80.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 81.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 108.628th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 120.225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.7 | Margin | −11.630th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 108.128th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 119.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 30102.2 | Pace | 99.920th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 21st of 308–17 | Road vs home | 5–1526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+63 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−93 Elo- Frank Ntilikina left hip injury−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.