Phoenix Suns at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Eric GordonPoints23
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Devin BookerRebounds8
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints26
- Bam AdebayoAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–105
- Q41.0shot clock turnover118–105
- Q425.0shot clock turnover118–105
- Q447.0Bradley Beal defensive rebound118–105
- Q450.1Tyler Herro misses 13-foot pullup jump shot118–105
- Q41:06Eric Gordon makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)118–105
- Q41:11Suns offensive team rebound115–105
- Q41:12Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot115–105
- Q41:33Jimmy Butler makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Richardson assists)115–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:54Eric Gordon makes 22-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 18 – 15 MIA · PHX 49% → 55% +7PHX 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q12:15Keita Bates-Diop makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 26 – 19 MIA · PHX 58% → 65% +7PHX 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q11:54Jimmy Butler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)PHX 26 – 22 MIA · MIA 35% → 42% +7MIA 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q27:22Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three pointer (Jimmy Butler assists)PHX 43 – 35 MIA · MIA 25% → 31% +7MIA 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q25:39Josh Okogie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 49 – 39 MIA · PHX 67% → 74% +7PHX 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- MIA 45%
- Fair odds
- MIA -107
- PHX +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 111.8 – 112.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +50 | −5 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +37 Elo | PHX 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 111.67th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | −1.119th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 112.021st of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 98.429th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 5th of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 12–1019th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.