Miami Heat at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints28
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds13
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints32
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–125
- Q43.1Haywood Highsmith makes two point shot109–125
- Q46.0Haywood Highsmith offensive rebound107–125
- Q47.0Caleb Martin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot107–125
- Q419.1Ryan Arcidiacono bad pass (Duncan Robinson steals)107–125
- Q435.1Caleb Martin makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot107–125
- Q445.1Caleb Martin defensive rebound105–125
- Q447.1Malachi Flynn misses 16-foot pullup jump shot105–125
- Q41:01Quentin Grimes defensive rebound105–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:37Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIA 67 – 73 NY · NY 72% → 80% +8NY 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q31:00Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 82 – 86 NY · MIA 17% → 25% +9MIA 17% → 25%+9 pts
- Q30.1Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIA 86 – 89 NY · NY 60% → 72% +11NY 60% → 72%+11 pts
- Q411:40Quentin Grimes makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)MIA 86 – 92 NY · NY 72% → 81% +10NY 72% → 81%+10 pts
- Q411:10Caleb Martin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 89 – 93 NY · MIA 16% → 25% +9MIA 16% → 25%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 81%
- Fair odds
- NY -233
- MIA +233 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 104.9 – 111.4 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1635 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +51 | MIA: Usual rotation · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +253 Elo | NY 81.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 115.216th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 109.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +5.36th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 115.911th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 110.57th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.5 | Pace | 99.427th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 15–57th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 0–1 NY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.