Denver Nuggets at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints31
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Nikola JokicRebounds11
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints26
- Julius RandleAssists8
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–122
- Q40.2Jericho Sims defensive rebound84–122
- Q43.2Hunter Tyson misses 26-foot three point jumper84–122
- Q410.1shot clock turnover84–122
- Q433.2Quentin Grimes defensive rebound84–122
- Q436.1Jay Huff misses 26-foot three point jumper84–122
- Q446.1Malachi Flynn makes two point shot84–122
- Q454.0Hunter Tyson lost ball turnover (Ryan Arcidiacono steals)84–120
- Q41:00Ryan Arcidiacono personal foul84–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:28OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)DEN 0 – 3 NY · NY 50% → 56% +6NY 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q17:43Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)DEN 5 – 13 NY · NY 60% → 66% +6NY 60% → 66%+6 pts
- Q16:38Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)DEN 7 – 18 NY · NY 67% → 72% +6NY 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q28:30Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 29 – 40 NY · DEN 19% → 25% +6DEN 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q27:52Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)DEN 29 – 43 NY · NY 76% → 81% +6NY 76% → 81%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nuggets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -1.5
- DEN 44%
- Fair odds
- DEN -102
- NY +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.3 – 111.1 NY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1613 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +100 | +33 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +42 Elo | NY 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 115.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.9 | Points allowed | 110.43rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +4.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 115.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.7 | Pace | 99.526th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3014–10 | Road vs home | 14–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+100 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.