Boston Celtics at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints26
- Derrick WhiteAssists6
- Jayson TatumRebounds8
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints19
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game143–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter143–110
- Q418.1Neemias Queta defensive rebound143–110
- Q422.0Neemias Queta blocks Orlando Robinson 's 1-foot layup143–110
- Q427.0Haywood Highsmith offensive rebound143–110
- Q431.1Josh Richardson misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot143–110
- Q443.1Svi Mykhailiuk makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)143–110
- Q450.1Nikola Jovic bad pass (Dalano Banton steals)140–110
- Q41:06Lamar Stevens makes 21-foot jumper (Dalano Banton assists)140–110
- Q41:23Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot138–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:29Tyler Herro makes 25-foot three pointer (Terry Rozier assists)BOS 6 – 5 MIA · MIA 24% → 30% +5MIA 24% → 30%+5 pts
- Q18:49Haywood Highsmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)BOS 8 – 8 MIA · MIA 26% → 32% +6MIA 26% → 32%+6 pts
- Q18:08Derrick White makes 23-foot three point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 13 – 8 MIA · BOS 72% → 77% +5BOS 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q23:39Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)BOS 63 – 53 MIA · BOS 80% → 86% +5BOS 80% → 86%+5 pts
- Q22:25Tyler Herro makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)BOS 65 – 58 MIA · MIA 14% → 20% +5MIA 14% → 20%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -8.5
- BOS 79%
- Fair odds
- BOS -221
- MIA +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 113.0 – 107.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1656 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +73 | +10 | BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | BOS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +233 Elo | BOS 79.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.3 | Points scored | 110.527th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 110.54th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+9.7 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 111.820th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 111.811th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.0 | Pace | 98.629th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 12–918th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.