Phoenix Suns at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints44
- Bradley BealAssists6
- Drew EubanksRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints26
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Moritz WagnerRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–113
- Q411.1shot clock turnover98–113
- Q429.2Anthony Black defensive rebound98–113
- Q434.1Goga Bitadze blocks Josh Okogie 's 1-foot driving layup98–113
- Q437.0Josh Okogie defensive rebound98–113
- Q442.1Chuma Okeke misses 25-foot three point jumper98–113
- Q457.0Jordan Goodwin makes tip shot98–113
- Q458.1Jordan Goodwin offensive rebound96–113
- Q459.1Jordan Goodwin misses driving floating jump shot96–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:31Joe Ingles makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)PHX 78 – 77 ORL · ORL 32% → 43% +11ORL 32% → 43%+11 pts
- Q411:31Kevin Durant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 88 – 84 ORL · PHX 57% → 69% +12PHX 57% → 69%+12 pts
- Q410:28Cole Anthony makes 25-foot three point jumper (Joe Ingles assists)PHX 90 – 89 ORL · ORL 30% → 43% +13ORL 30% → 43%+13 pts
- Q46:41Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)PHX 92 – 97 ORL · ORL 59% → 74% +15ORL 59% → 74%+15 pts
- Q46:17Moritz Wagner makes layup (Franz Wagner assists)PHX 94 – 99 ORL · ORL 65% → 75% +10ORL 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -2.5
- PHX 60%
- Fair odds
- PHX -127
- ORL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.2 – 111.4 ORL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | −11 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +72 Elo | PHX 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 56.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 111.325th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 111.16th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 9th of 30116.0 | Offense rating | 110.424th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 110.24th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.8 | Pace | 100.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–8 | Road vs home | 14–610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 1–0 ORL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.