LA Clippers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints31
- Russell WestbrookAssists7
- Mason PlumleeRebounds11
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints27
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–109
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound125–109
- Q40.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound125–109
- Q40.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses driving layup125–109
- Q40.1Patrick Baldwin Jr. misses 2-foot tip shot125–109
- Q44.0Patrick Baldwin Jr. offensive rebound125–109
- Q44.2Johnny Davis misses 27-foot three point jumper125–109
- Q425.0Bones Hyland makes 1-foot dunk (Kobe Brown assists)125–109
- Q427.0Kobe Brown defensive rebound123–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:34Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 30 – 26 WSH · LAC 67% → 73% +6LAC 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q24:12James Harden makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Terance Mann assists)LAC 56 – 48 WSH · LAC 75% → 81% +6LAC 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q23:57Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)LAC 56 – 51 WSH · WSH 19% → 25% +6WSH 19% → 25%+6 pts
- Q251.0Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three pointerLAC 64 – 60 WSH · WSH 21% → 28% +7WSH 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q311:45Amir Coffey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 69 – 60 WSH · LAC 77% → 83% +6LAC 77% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -8
- LAC 78%
- Fair odds
- LAC -198
- WSH +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 120.1 – 114.9 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +14 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +220 Elo | LAC 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 115.216th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 124.030th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.1 | Margin | −8.828th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 110.025th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 118.427th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 104.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3011–11 | Road vs home | 3–1830th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.