LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints22
- James HardenAssists13
- Mason PlumleeRebounds12
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints23
- Dennis SchroderAssists5
- Bruce BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–107
- Q412.1Clippers defensive team rebound127–107
- Q413.1Garrett Temple misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot127–107
- Q421.1Brandon Boston Jr. makes driving layup (Bones Hyland assists)127–107
- Q425.1Kira Lewis Jr. personal foul125–107
- Q444.1Garrett Temple out of bounds bad pass turnover125–107
- Q445.0Garrett Temple offensive rebound125–107
- Q447.1Jalen McDaniels misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot125–107
- Q457.1Mason Plumlee makes tip shot125–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:03Scottie Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)LAC 19 – 11 TOR · TOR 15% → 19% +4TOR 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q12:06Dennis Schroder makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jontay Porter assists)LAC 25 – 20 TOR · TOR 19% → 24% +5TOR 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q211:09James Harden makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Daniel Theis assists)LAC 32 – 24 TOR · LAC 76% → 81% +5LAC 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q29:38Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 40 – 28 TOR · LAC 83% → 87% +4LAC 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q37:52Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 77 – 63 TOR · LAC 88% → 92% +4LAC 88% → 92%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7
- LAC 75%
- Fair odds
- LAC -208
- TOR +208 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 120.1 – 114.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1608 | 1439 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +82 | −14 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAC crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +194 Elo | LAC 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 67.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 114.318th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 116.418th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.9 | Margin | −2.023rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 115.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.516th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 16th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 10–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.