Los Angeles Lakers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints27
- D'Angelo RussellAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints25
- Kawhi LeonardAssists10
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–127
- Q413.0Jalen Hood-Schifino lost ball turnover (Daniel Theis steals)116–127
- Q420.1Norman Powell makes driving layup (Terance Mann assists)116–127
- Q441.0Maxwell Lewis makes driving layup (Christian Wood assists)116–125
- Q455.0Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Rui Hachimura114–125
- Q455.0Jalen Hood-Schifino enters the game for Austin Reaves114–125
- Q455.0Max Christie enters the game for Taurean Prince114–125
- Q455.0Maxwell Lewis enters the game for D'Angelo Russell114–125
- Q455.0Daniel Theis enters the game for Kawhi Leonard114–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:46Austin Reaves makes 27-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 88 – 92 LAC · LAL 16% → 23% +7LAL 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q49:16D'Angelo Russell makes 11-foot two point shotLAL 106 – 108 LAC · LAL 23% → 30% +8LAL 23% → 30%+8 pts
- Q48:24Norman Powell makes driving layup (James Harden assists)LAL 106 – 110 LAC · LAC 70% → 78% +8LAC 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q47:32Taurean Prince makes two point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 108 – 110 LAC · LAL 22% → 30% +9LAL 22% → 30%+9 pts
- Q47:02Norman Powell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAL 108 – 113 LAC · LAC 70% → 82% +13LAC 70% → 82%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -9
- LAC 81%
- Fair odds
- LAC -279
- LAL +279 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 113.1 – 120.9 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | +74 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +247 Elo | LAC 80.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 73.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 117.89th of 30 |
| 16th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 112.09th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +5.84th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 118.25th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 30102.5 | Pace | 99.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–14 | Road vs home | 18–43rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.