Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints18
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds13
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints24
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–113
- Q40.1Spurs offensive team rebound118–113
- Q42.0Victor Wembanyama misses 26-foot three point jumper118–113
- Q45.1Spurs Full timeout118–113
- Q45.1Daniel Gafford makes 1-foot dunk118–113
- Q45.1Daniel Gafford offensive rebound116–113
- Q410.0Tyus Jones misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot116–113
- Q432.0Keldon Johnson back court turnover116–113
- Q446.0Spurs defensive team rebound116–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:42Jordan Poole makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 107 – 107 SA · WSH 26% → 47% +21WSH 26% → 47%+21 pts
- Q42:55Bilal Coulibaly makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 110 – 109 SA · WSH 31% → 56% +24WSH 31% → 56%+24 pts
- Q42:12Tyus Jones makes 13-foot pullup jump shotWSH 112 – 111 SA · WSH 38% → 57% +19WSH 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q41:34Devin Vassell makes 11-foot step back jumpshotWSH 114 – 113 SA · SA 21% → 41% +20SA 21% → 41%+20 pts
- Q41:20Tyus Jones makes 17-foot pullup jump shotWSH 116 – 113 SA · WSH 60% → 81% +21WSH 60% → 81%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3
- SA 61%
- Fair odds
- SA -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 117.2 – 120.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −15 | +28 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +79 Elo | SA 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 61.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30115.1 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.2 | Points allowed | 121.426th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.1 | Margin | −8.626th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 108.527th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.6 | Defense rating | 116.725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 103.54th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 5–1727th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.