Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints32
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists10
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds9
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints24
- Devin VassellAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–114
- Q414.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound140–114
- Q418.1Julian Champagnie misses 23-foot three point jumper140–114
- Q425.2Devonte' Graham defensive rebound140–114
- Q429.1Aleksej Pokusevski misses 22-foot three point jumper140–114
- Q443.2Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)140–114
- Q453.0Keyontae Johnson back court turnover140–111
- Q458.1Aleksej Pokusevski defensive rebound140–111
- Q41:01Devonte' Graham misses 25-foot step back jumpshot140–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:47Jalen Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 3 – 0 SA · OKC 69% → 74% +5OKC 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q18:19Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 24-foot three pointerOKC 10 – 7 SA · OKC 68% → 73% +6OKC 68% → 73%+6 pts
- Q17:59Blake Wesley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)OKC 10 – 10 SA · SA 27% → 32% +6SA 27% → 32%+6 pts
- Q17:25Chet Holmgren makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 13 – 12 SA · OKC 64% → 70% +6OKC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q13:45Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)OKC 22 – 20 SA · OKC 65% → 71% +6OKC 65% → 71%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -8
- OKC 78%
- Fair odds
- OKC -218
- SA +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 122.6 – 116.7 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +83 | +4 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +219 Elo | OKC 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 68.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.5 | Points scored | 112.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 121.726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.9 | Margin | −9.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 108.028th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.9 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 3–1628th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.