Portland Trail Blazers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints40
- Anfernee SimonsAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds12
Spurs- Jeremy SochanPoints31
- Blake WesleyAssists8
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–116
- Q40.1shot clock turnover100–116
- Q422.1Keldon Johnson defensive rebound100–116
- Q426.1Taze Moore misses 27-foot three point jumper100–116
- Q439.0Blake Wesley makes free throw 2 of 2100–116
- Q439.0Spurs offensive team rebound100–115
- Q439.0Blake Wesley misses free throw 1 of 2100–115
- Q439.0Taze Moore shooting foul100–115
- Q449.1Taze Moore makes 2-foot two point shot100–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:26Victor Wembanyama makes 29-foot three point jumper (Doug McDermott assists)POR 40 – 42 SA · SA 52% → 60% +8SA 52% → 60%+8 pts
- Q24:20Jeremy Sochan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Blake Wesley assists)POR 48 – 51 SA · SA 55% → 63% +8SA 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q22:07Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot step back jumpshotPOR 53 – 55 SA · POR 32% → 40% +8POR 32% → 40%+8 pts
- Q39:09Jeremy Sochan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)POR 61 – 67 SA · SA 63% → 72% +8SA 63% → 72%+8 pts
- Q38:20Matisse Thybulle makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 64 – 67 SA · POR 28% → 37% +9POR 28% → 37%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2
- SA 57%
- Fair odds
- SA -128
- POR +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 114.9 – 116.8 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1367 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −43 | +8 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +52 Elo | SA 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 112.823rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 122.126th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−9.0 | Margin | −9.327th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 108.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 117.125th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.4 | Pace | 103.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 306–19 | Road vs home | 3–1728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 1–1 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.