Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Kyle KuzmaPoints30
- Tyus JonesAssists9
- Daniel GaffordRebounds13
Pistons- Bojan BogdanovicPoints30
- Cade CunninghamAssists12
- Jalen DurenRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–104
- Q410.1Isaiah Stewart makes free throw 2 of 2118–104
- Q410.1Pistons offensive team rebound118–103
- Q410.1Isaiah Stewart misses free throw 1 of 2118–103
- Q410.1Kyle Kuzma shooting foul118–103
- Q426.0Tyus Jones makes free throw 1 of 1118–103
- Q426.0Killian Hayes enters the game for Bojan Bogdanovic117–103
- Q426.0Ausar Thompson enters the game for Cade Cunningham117–103
- Q426.0Cade Cunningham shooting foul117–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:37Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)WSH 76 – 74 DET · WSH 45% → 55% +10WSH 45% → 55%+10 pts
- Q35:08Bojan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three pointerWSH 78 – 77 DET · DET 38% → 48% +10DET 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q49:59Bilal Coulibaly makes 24-foot three point shot (Delon Wright assists)WSH 94 – 89 DET · WSH 58% → 71% +13WSH 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q49:29Corey Kispert makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marvin Bagley III assists)WSH 97 – 91 DET · WSH 63% → 75% +12WSH 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q45:09Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)WSH 105 – 98 DET · WSH 73% → 86% +13WSH 73% → 86%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pistons 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -0.5
- DET 49%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 119.9 – 120.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1373 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | −17 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +8 Elo | WSH 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 112.524th of 30 |
| 30th of 30124.7 | Points allowed | 122.627th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.7 | Margin | −10.229th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.8 | Offense rating | 109.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 118.928th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.7 | Pace | 102.66th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 29th of 304–19 | Road vs home | 3–2030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.