Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints32
- Anthony EdwardsAssists12
- Rudy GobertRebounds7
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints25
- Tre JonesAssists11
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–113
- Q40.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound112–113
- Q40.0Karl-Anthony Towns misses 26-foot step back jumpshot112–113
- Q47.1Timberwolves Full timeout112–113
- Q49.0Rudy Gobert defensive rebound112–113
- Q49.0Keldon Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2112–113
- Q49.0Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2112–113
- Q49.0Jaden McDaniels personal foul112–112
- Q49.1Keldon Johnson offensive rebound112–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:22Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three pointer (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 107 – 107 SA · MIN 33% → 56% +23MIN 33% → 56%+23 pts
- Q41:55Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Devin Vassell assists)MIN 107 – 112 SA · SA 66% → 88% +22SA 66% → 88%+22 pts
- Q41:10Anthony Edwards makes 27-foot three point shotMIN 110 – 112 SA · MIN 6% → 28% +22MIN 6% → 28%+22 pts
- Q432.0Anthony Edwards makes two point shot (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)MIN 112 – 112 SA · MIN 18% → 52% +35MIN 18% → 52%+35 pts
- Q49.0Keldon Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2MIN 112 – 113 SA · SA 49% → 82% +33SA 49% → 82%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -8
- MIN 78%
- Fair odds
- MIN -240
- SA +240 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 116.3 – 109.6 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +32 | +26 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +218 Elo | MIN 77.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 69.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30113.1 | Points scored | 112.923rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.5 | Points allowed | 121.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.6 | Margin | −8.826th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Offense rating | 108.228th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 116.625th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.7 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 4–1728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 SA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.