LA Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints30
- James HardenAssists10
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds8
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Donovan MitchellAssists12
- Jarrett AllenRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–118
- Q420.1Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Caris LeVert assists)108–118
- Q432.1Terance Mann enters the game for Kawhi Leonard108–116
- Q432.1Kobe Brown enters the game for James Harden108–116
- Q432.1Brandon Boston Jr. enters the game for Russell Westbrook108–116
- Q432.1Georges Niang enters the game for Isaac Okoro108–116
- Q432.1Cavaliers Full timeout108–116
- Q432.1Russell Westbrook out of bounds lost ball turnover108–116
- Q435.1James Harden defensive rebound108–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:03Kawhi Leonard makes 23-foot step back jumpshotLAC 73 – 72 CLE · LAC 41% → 52% +11LAC 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q33:35Amir Coffey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniel Theis assists)LAC 76 – 75 CLE · LAC 41% → 52% +11LAC 41% → 52%+11 pts
- Q31:35Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)LAC 78 – 82 CLE · CLE 55% → 67% +11CLE 55% → 67%+11 pts
- Q31:18Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 81 – 82 CLE · LAC 33% → 45% +11LAC 33% → 45%+11 pts
- Q411:10Georges Niang makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dean Wade assists)LAC 84 – 91 CLE · CLE 68% → 78% +11CLE 68% → 78%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Cavaliers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- CLE 49%
- Fair odds
- CLE -111
- LAC +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.8 – 112.6 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | +80 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +9 Elo | LAC 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 114.019th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 109.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.5 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.4 | Offense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 109.22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 14–814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.