Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints32
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints22
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Brook LopezRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–100
- Q48.1Caris LeVert defensive rebound112–100
- Q412.0Malik Beasley misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot112–100
- Q422.1Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)112–100
- Q441.1Max Strus enters the game for Isaac Okoro109–100
- Q441.1Jae Crowder enters the game for Brook Lopez109–100
- Q441.1Cavaliers Full timeout109–100
- Q445.1Georges Niang defensive rebound109–100
- Q445.1Damian Lillard misses 1-foot tip shot109–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:27Dean Wade makes 27-foot three point jumper (Max Strus assists)CLE 63 – 65 MIL · CLE 33% → 42% +9CLE 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q36:58Dean Wade makes 26-foot three point shot (Max Strus assists)CLE 66 – 65 MIL · CLE 42% → 52% +10CLE 42% → 52%+10 pts
- Q31:26Jae Crowder makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CLE 76 – 71 MIL · MIL 23% → 32% +10MIL 23% → 32%+10 pts
- Q358.1Bobby Portis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CLE 78 – 74 MIL · MIL 25% → 36% +10MIL 25% → 36%+10 pts
- Q331.1Pat Connaughton makes 22-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)CLE 78 – 77 MIL · MIL 35% → 47% +12MIL 35% → 47%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 50%
- Fair odds
- MIL -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.1 – 118.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +80 | +62 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL 0 Elo | MIL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 124.62nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 120.425th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+4.0 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 119.12nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.6 | Defense rating | 115.119th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.8 | Pace | 103.74th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 6th of 3011–8 | Road vs home | 20–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+80 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.