Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints23
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–126
- Q418.1shot clock turnover116–126
- Q442.1Craig Porter makes free throw 2 of 2116–126
- Q442.1Cameron Payne enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo115–126
- Q442.1AJ Green enters the game for Khris Middleton115–126
- Q442.1Robin Lopez enters the game for Brook Lopez115–126
- Q442.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Malik Beasley115–126
- Q442.1Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Damian Lillard115–126
- Q442.1Craig Porter makes free throw 1 of 2115–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:55Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Jones assists)CLE 36 – 40 MIL · CLE 33% → 40% +7CLE 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:35Sam Merrill makes 28-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 39 – 42 MIL · CLE 35% → 42% +7CLE 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q28:23Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)CLE 39 – 45 MIL · MIL 58% → 65% +7MIL 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q254.1Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CLE 51 – 59 MIL · MIL 64% → 72% +8MIL 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q310:09Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 56 – 63 MIL · CLE 22% → 29% +7CLE 22% → 29%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -1
- MIL 46%
- Fair odds
- MIL -101
- CLE +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.1 – 118.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +83 | +59 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +29 Elo | CLE 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points scored | 124.61st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 120.525th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +4.110th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 119.11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 115.221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.7 | Pace | 103.84th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 19–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+83 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.