LA Clippers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints26
- James HardenAssists7
- James HardenRebounds8
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints21
- Jrue HolidayAssists4
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–96
- Q40.0Clippers offensive team rebound115–96
- Q40.1Bones Hyland misses 41-foot three point jumper115–96
- Q45.0Lamar Stevens makes free throw 1 of 1115–96
- Q45.0Kobe Brown shooting foul115–95
- Q45.0Lamar Stevens makes two point shot (Dalano Banton assists)115–95
- Q47.1Svi Mykhailiuk defensive rebound115–93
- Q410.1Neemias Queta blocks Bones Hyland 's 13-foot two point shot115–93
- Q432.1Lamar Stevens makes free throw 2 of 2115–93
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q118.1Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)LAC 26 – 21 BOS · BOS 42% → 49% +7BOS 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q211:27Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)LAC 27 – 24 BOS · BOS 47% → 54% +7BOS 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q210:46Daniel Theis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 30 – 24 BOS · LAC 46% → 54% +7LAC 46% → 54%+7 pts
- Q22:39Jrue Holiday makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 47 – 37 BOS · BOS 25% → 32% +7BOS 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q22:24Terance Mann makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)LAC 50 – 37 BOS · LAC 68% → 75% +7LAC 68% → 75%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3.5
- BOS 65%
- Fair odds
- BOS -169
- LAC +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 114.7 – 118.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1664 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +77 | +57 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +105 Elo | BOS 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 120.84th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 110.64th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +10.21st of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 119.61st of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 109.53rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3099.5 | Pace | 99.921st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 20–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.