Miami Heat at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints24
- Terry RozierAssists5
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints26
- Jordan PooleAssists10
- Daniel GaffordRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–102
- Q41.0Bam Adebayo defensive rebound110–102
- Q42.0Daniel Gafford misses 3-foot tip shot110–102
- Q42.0Daniel Gafford offensive rebound110–102
- Q46.0Corey Kispert misses 29-foot jump bank shot110–102
- Q48.1Tyler Herro enters the game for Jimmy Butler110–102
- Q48.1Wizards Full timeout110–102
- Q48.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2110–102
- Q48.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2109–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24.1Corey Kispert makes 27-foot jump bank shot (Tyus Jones assists)MIA 53 – 59 WSH · WSH 52% → 61% +9WSH 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q20.1Jimmy Butler makes 26-foot three pointer (Tyler Herro assists)MIA 56 – 59 WSH · MIA 39% → 48% +9MIA 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q38:27Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIA 62 – 64 WSH · WSH 41% → 50% +9WSH 41% → 50%+9 pts
- Q34:40Corey Kispert makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)MIA 70 – 71 WSH · WSH 38% → 48% +10WSH 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q31:57Kevin Love makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)MIA 79 – 71 WSH · MIA 73% → 82% +9MIA 73% → 82%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 60%
- Fair odds
- MIA -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.2 – 111.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −25 | MIA: Usual rotation · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +67 Elo | MIA 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 115.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 124.030th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −9.028th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 109.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 118.528th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.4 | Pace | 104.62nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 3–1930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.