Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Keegan MurrayPoints33
- Domantas SabonisAssists13
- Domantas SabonisRebounds17
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints31
- Terry RozierAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–115
- Q410.2shot clock turnover106–115
- Q429.0Harrison Barnes makes 5-foot dunk (Domantas Sabonis assists)106–115
- Q430.2Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound104–115
- Q433.2Caleb Martin misses layup104–115
- Q458.0Harrison Barnes makes layup (Domantas Sabonis assists)104–115
- Q41:08Jimmy Butler makes 5-foot driving dunk102–115
- Q41:15Bam Adebayo defensive rebound102–113
- Q41:17De'Aaron Fox misses two point shot102–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:38Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)SAC 70 – 70 MIA · MIA 39% → 48% +10MIA 39% → 48%+10 pts
- Q37:09Jimmy Butler makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)SAC 70 – 73 MIA · MIA 48% → 58% +10MIA 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q36:07Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 75 – 77 MIA · SAC 35% → 45% +10SAC 35% → 45%+10 pts
- Q33:32Trey Lyles makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 78 – 82 MIA · SAC 27% → 37% +10SAC 27% → 37%+10 pts
- Q33:12Kevin Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)SAC 78 – 85 MIA · MIA 63% → 73% +10MIA 63% → 73%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 55%
- Fair odds
- SAC -112
- MIA +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.7 – 112.8 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +41 | −2 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +34 Elo | SAC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30118.4 | Points scored | 110.427th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 111.77th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 12–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.