Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Harrison BarnesPoints39
- Domantas SabonisAssists13
- Kevin HuerterRebounds10
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints33
- Draymond GreenAssists11
- Stephen CurryRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–133
- Q40.1Stephen Curry lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)134–133
- Q412.1Klay Thompson defensive rebound134–133
- Q415.0Kevin Huerter misses free throw 2 of 2134–133
- Q415.0Andrew Wiggins enters the game for Brandin Podziemski134–133
- Q415.0Kings offensive team rebound134–133
- Q415.0Kevin Huerter misses free throw 1 of 2134–133
- Q415.0Jonathan Kuminga personal take foul134–133
- Q415.0Harrison Barnes defensive rebound134–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:39De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 125 – 121 GS · SAC 59% → 77% +18SAC 59% → 77%+18 pts
- Q43:01Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)SAC 128 – 127 GS · GS 19% → 40% +21GS 19% → 40%+21 pts
- Q41:22Jonathan Kuminga makes 3-foot alley oop dunk shot (Stephen Curry assists)SAC 132 – 131 GS · GS 17% → 37% +20GS 17% → 37%+20 pts
- Q447.1Jonathan Kuminga makes 2-foot dunk (Draymond Green assists)SAC 132 – 133 GS · GS 33% → 65% +32GS 33% → 65%+32 pts
- Q422.0Domantas Sabonis makes 3-foot dunk (Kevin Huerter assists)SAC 134 – 133 GS · SAC 28% → 73% +45SAC 28% → 73%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 54%
- Fair odds
- SAC -134
- GS +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.3 – 120.1 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +44 | +4 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +29 Elo | SAC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.3 | Points scored | 117.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 118.022nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 115.411th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3010–10 | Road vs home | 12–1121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–2 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.