Atlanta Hawks at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints35
- Dejounte MurrayAssists6
- Clint CapelaRebounds12
Kings- Harrison BarnesPoints32
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Domantas SabonisRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–122
- Q44.0shot clock turnover107–122
- Q428.0Kings defensive team rebound107–122
- Q430.1Dejounte Murray misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot107–122
- Q435.1Malik Monk makes free throw 2 of 2107–122
- Q435.1Malik Monk makes free throw 1 of 2107–121
- Q435.1Harrison Barnes makes technical free throw107–120
- Q435.1Garrison Mathews technical foul (1st technical foul)107–119
- Q435.1Garrison Mathews loose ball foul107–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:42Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keegan Murray assists)ATL 2 – 5 SAC · SAC 72% → 77% +5SAC 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q19:33Saddiq Bey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 7 – 5 SAC · ATL 27% → 32% +6ATL 27% → 32%+6 pts
- Q18:30Kevin Huerter makes 25-foot three point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)ATL 7 – 10 SAC · SAC 71% → 76% +5SAC 71% → 76%+5 pts
- Q17:31Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Huerter assists)ATL 8 – 13 SAC · SAC 75% → 79% +5SAC 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q16:26Dejounte Murray makes 25-foot three point jumper (Clint Capela assists)ATL 13 – 17 SAC · ATL 18% → 22% +5ATL 18% → 22%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -6.5
- SAC 74%
- Fair odds
- SAC -255
- ATL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 118.1 – 125.2 SAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | +43 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +179 Elo | SAC 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.0 | Points scored | 118.28th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.5 | Points allowed | 118.021st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.4 | Margin | +0.316th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 115.113th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 114.818th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.511th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 13–814th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 0–1 SAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.