Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints23
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints25
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Jonathan KumingaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–134
- Q419.2Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound112–134
- Q423.1AJ Griffin misses 23-foot three point jumper112–134
- Q433.1Lester Quinones makes driving layup (Cory Joseph assists)112–134
- Q450.1Lester Quinones defensive rebound112–132
- Q451.0Trayce Jackson-Davis blocks Seth Lundy 's 6-foot driving layup112–132
- Q458.1Seth Lundy defensive rebound112–132
- Q41:01Gui Santos misses two point shot112–132
- Q41:11Trayce Jackson-Davis defensive rebound112–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:41Saddiq Bey makes 27-foot three point jumperATL 71 – 69 GS · ATL 36% → 44% +9ATL 36% → 44%+9 pts
- Q39:41Dario Saric makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)ATL 74 – 74 GS · GS 52% → 61% +9GS 52% → 61%+9 pts
- Q37:31Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dario Saric assists)ATL 78 – 77 GS · GS 47% → 57% +10GS 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q36:08Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)ATL 79 – 82 GS · GS 60% → 69% +9GS 60% → 69%+9 pts
- Q33:27Dejounte Murray makes 27-foot three point jumper (Garrison Mathews assists)ATL 85 – 88 GS · ATL 22% → 31% +9ATL 22% → 31%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -5.5
- GS 71%
- Fair odds
- GS -194
- ATL +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 119.8 – 124.9 GS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −7 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +154 Elo | GS 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 65.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 66.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 117.212th of 30 |
| 27th of 30122.4 | Points allowed | 118.222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−2.7 | Margin | −1.019th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 115.014th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.8 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 5th of 30103.3 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 309–13 | Road vs home | 11–1121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.