Sacramento Kings at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints23
- Domantas SabonisAssists5
- Domantas SabonisRebounds26
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points22
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists5
- David RoddyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–94
- Q44.1GG Jackson lost ball turnover (De'Aaron Fox steals)103–94
- Q410.0GG Jackson defensive rebound103–94
- Q411.1De'Aaron Fox misses free throw 2 of 2103–94
- Q411.1De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2103–94
- Q411.1Xavier Tillman personal take foul102–94
- Q412.1Xavier Tillman personal take foul102–94
- Q418.0Scotty Pippen Jr. kicked ball violation102–94
- Q424.2Domantas Sabonis defensive rebound102–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:17GG Jackson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Matthew Hurt assists)SAC 85 – 88 MEM · MEM 47% → 64% +17MEM 47% → 64%+17 pts
- Q45:53Kevin Huerter makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 88 – 88 MEM · SAC 35% → 52% +17SAC 35% → 52%+17 pts
- Q43:59Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 93 – 92 MEM · SAC 38% → 59% +21SAC 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q42:30De'Aaron Fox makes two point shotSAC 97 – 94 MEM · SAC 61% → 77% +16SAC 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q42:01Trey Lyles makes 23-foot three point jumper (Harrison Barnes assists)SAC 100 – 94 MEM · SAC 79% → 94% +15SAC 79% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 54%
- Fair odds
- SAC -133
- MEM +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 114.7 – 112.6 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | +12 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Derrick Rose −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +24 Elo | SAC 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 57.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 107.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 112.812th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −5.025th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 106.329th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 111.39th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.914th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–10 | Road vs home | 5–1526th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+12 Elo- Derrick Rose left hamstring strain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.