Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints34
- Malik MonkAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints28
- Luka DoncicAssists17
- Luka DoncicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–115
- Q41.1Mavericks offensive team rebound120–115
- Q41.1Luka Doncic misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot120–115
- Q44.1Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2120–115
- Q44.1Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2119–115
- Q44.1Luka Doncic personal take foul118–115
- Q47.0Josh Green enters the game for Seth Curry118–115
- Q47.0Kings Full timeout118–115
- Q47.0Maxi Kleber makes tip shot118–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:32De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three pointerSAC 25 – 23 DAL · SAC 51% → 58% +7SAC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q29:39Grant Williams makes 24-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)SAC 33 – 30 DAL · DAL 33% → 40% +7DAL 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q25:24Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 46 – 37 DAL · SAC 68% → 75% +7SAC 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q23:50Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)SAC 50 – 43 DAL · DAL 23% → 29% +7DAL 23% → 29%+7 pts
- Q22:01Domantas Sabonis makes 25-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 57 – 47 DAL · SAC 71% → 78% +7SAC 71% → 78%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -1
- SAC 54%
- Fair odds
- SAC -115
- DAL +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 122.4 – 121.4 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +43 | +1 | SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SAC +31 Elo | SAC 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 118.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 118.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 116.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.5 | Pace | 102.38th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 11th of 3011–10 | Road vs home | 13–1120th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.