Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints73
- Luka DoncicAssists7
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints30
- Trae YoungAssists11
- Clint CapelaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game148–143
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter148–143
- Q40.0Hawks offensive team rebound148–143
- Q42.1Saddiq Bey misses tip shot148–143
- Q42.1Saddiq Bey offensive rebound148–143
- Q42.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 25-foot three point jumper148–143
- Q45.0Hawks Full timeout148–143
- Q45.0Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2148–143
- Q45.0Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2147–143
- Q45.0Bogdan Bogdanovic personal take foul146–143
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:06Josh Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)DAL 74 – 72 ATL · DAL 53% → 62% +9DAL 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q31:02Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DAL 106 – 98 ATL · DAL 73% → 82% +9DAL 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q44:10Dejounte Murray makes driving layupDAL 131 – 127 ATL · ATL 13% → 22% +9ATL 13% → 22%+9 pts
- Q43:18Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Green assists)DAL 134 – 127 ATL · DAL 80% → 93% +12DAL 80% → 93%+12 pts
- Q41:16Dante Exum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DAL 140 – 134 ATL · DAL 84% → 97% +13DAL 84% → 97%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -2.5
- DAL 61%
- Fair odds
- DAL -139
- ATL +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 122.9 – 120.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | −18 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −36 | DAL crossed 1 time zone and ATL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +76 Elo | DAL 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 58.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 119.66th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 122.728th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −3.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 115.114th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 30102.3 | Pace | 103.35th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 8–1224th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.